futures for the stock market crash and the response is different, this is because the species associated with the stock market caused by different!
1, countries in the stock market
Europe, America, Japan, Asia-Pacific countries and the U.S. stock market stock market impact of correlation in the 80-90%, so the national stock market under the impact of U.S. stock market very large.
2, stock index futures
stock index futures and stock index by the same fundamental factors, according to statistics of stock index futures and stock index has about 90-95% of the correlation, the index the impact of futures by stock market is the largest.
3, industrial futures
industrial futures and the relevance of national macroeconomic very high, the stock market and the country macroeconomic relevance is very high, copper futures and stock markets, according to statistics the relevance of around 70%.
4, agricultural futures
household goods related futures and weaker macroeconomic, agricultural futures, according to statistics associated with the stock market is about 50-60% only.
5, bond futures
bond futures and the stock market is a negative correlation. Debt is a low-risk investment tools, stock market crash will lead to increased purchase of government bonds, the bond market by the favor!
6, the precious metals market
precious metals market and the weak correlation between the stock market, the stock market's huge gold and other precious metals as a risk of causing a tool than is currently being sought.
significant resilience in commodity futures is determined by its own fundamental factors.
fell relative to the stock index futures, commodity futures was defensive. Basically stock index futures hit a new low, but basically there is no commodity futures hit a new low, but wheat futures rose slightly. Significant resilience in commodity futures is determined by its own fundamental factors, the stock market is only one factor affecting commodity futures, but not all. The fundamentals of commodity futures are partial tension, we simply look at a few major commodities listed:
1, beans: According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture crop report in December 2007 data show that U.S. soybean production for 2007/2008 to 70.61 million tons, down 18.6% over 2006. Soybean production was 14.3 million tons, down 11% from 2006. USDA supply and demand in the December 2007 report predicted that total global soybean production in 2007/2008 is forecast to 2.2159 million tons, and up to 2.3520 million tons of total consumption, demand, a further decline in global inventories are expected for the year ending stocks at 47.32 million tons worldwide than in 2006 dropped 22%. Tight supply of soybeans to soybean prices provide a strong bullish influence.
overall balance of the global soybean supply. According to USDA report data show that in 2007/2008 the total global soybean supply is expected to 1.6131 million tons, a slight increase over the previous year of 4%, while total consumption is expected to 1.5951 million tons, a slight increase over the previous year by 5%. Production to meet consumption.
2007/2008 annual global oil production is projected at 37.97 million tons, up 1.68 million tons over the previous year. Total demand is 38.05 million tons, up 2.37 million tons over the previous year, demand grew faster than output growth, mainly due to soybean oil in the field of bio-fuels rapid growth in demand, ending stocks of 3.04 million tons from the previous year reduced to 257 tons.
around the Spring Festival is China legumes, meat products, edible oil consumption peak, soybean prices have obviously been supported.
2, Wheat: December 2007, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast for the 2007/08 world wheat stocks 1.1006 million tonnes, a substantial reduction of 10.4% in 2006/07, to 142.6 million tons. FAO in the latest Food Outlook report, global wheat production for 2007/08 is expected to increase by 1.1% to reach 602.1 million tons. Very low relative to the stock point of view, a very small increase in wheat production, which leads to very tight global supply. Spring Festival is China's food consumption before and after the peak, wheat prices are obviously supported.
3, maize: two from the world and U.S. production of maize, the main producing countries, nearly 20 years of corn production continues to increase, and in 2007 the U.S. corn harvest, corn is close to record high in China Global corn production up to 769 million tons. But the whole world corn consumption growth momentum seems steeper. Mainly caused by the above conditions is not only the traditional consumption of feed corn has steadily increased, while industrial demand for corn has become a new growth point. China as the country of consumption of traditional feed, corn for feed consumption has accounted for more than 70% of total consumption, but dare not show weakness in recent years, industrial demand, corn ethanol, starch, starch-based corn processing sugar processing also in China rapid expansion of the number of industrial use of corn has been steadily rising. Around the Spring Festival is the food, meat, alcohol consumption, the peak of the price of corn was to be supported.
4, Energy: U.S. Energy Information Administration recently released EIA forecast in 2008 and 2009 the overall global oil demand will likely increase of 160 million barrels. EIA said the first quarter of 2008 global oil demand is expected to increase by 0.3% to 8774 million barrels, equivalent to 2.45% a year earlier. The year 2008, daily global oil demand is expected to reach 8747 million barrels, representing an increase of 1.9% the previous year. EIA estimates that OECD 2008, OECD countries other than the increase in oil demand will reach 120 million barrels, equivalent to OECD countries are expected to increase three times the amount of 41 million barrels. In terms of average annual global GDP growth of 4% forecast that world oil supply and demand will reach equilibrium in 2008, after which the demand is growing faster than supply growth, supply and demand gap will grow. Heating consumption in winter is the northern peak of energy prices has obviously been supported.
5, metal: in 2008 the Chinese economy will maintain rapid growth, after going through all kinds of macro-control will maintain the economic growth rate of 10-11%, then the non-ferrous metals is still very strong demand, prices support. Chinese New Year holiday are now facing a large, cash consumption needs of enterprises are prepared by the library, after the Spring Festival is also the demand for replenishment, so the supply will be localized around the Spring Festival tight spot.
6, Gold: Gold futures hedging by consumer demand and needs the support of two factors. Precious metals consumption in China around the Spring Festival peak.
a result, we can see that the fundamentals for the commodity futures market is itself plays a dominant role. Experienced a short-term shocks, the mountain will be gradually restore the commodity futures rising trend.
stock of the commodity futures market channels
influence stock prices of commodities, mainly through two channels:
first lead to market concerns of future consumption . Because the stock market crash, the market's confidence in future economic hit, worried consumers are affected, so long after another out of the market.
Second, funding chain problems, was forced open in the commodities market.
Federal Reserve emergency rate cut could turn the tide
to prevent the collapse of financial markets and economic recession, the Fed on the 22nd of emergency to reduce the federal funds rate by 75 basis points to 3.50% for 2005 In the lowest level since September. This is the Fed cut rates since the 1980s, the largest one, the Fed since 2001, The Fed also reduced the discount rate 75 basis points to 4%. Stimulation of the rate cut news for global stock and commodity futures markets to provide support.
We believe that the role of the Federal Reserve cut interest rates will stimulate economic growth does not lie, but to stabilize the market sentiment. Fed rate cut were stronger, than expected rate cut expected 50 percent, enough to see the Fed's determination. U.S. economy's real problem is not subprime losses, which will lead to fears that the financial crisis and economic recession. In fact the size of subordinated debt is very limited, only 1% of U.S. financial markets about 6,000 billion U.S. dollars, can help the less real losses or 20% of the economic strength of the United States enough to digest this problem. In addition, the large number of foreign institutions for the United States to digest some of the subordinated debt securities. With the U.S. government, the central bank and other governments, the central bank's intervention, subordinated debt is entirely possible to achieve a soft landing in 2008! The authority is generally expected U.S. economic growth in 2008 is about 2%, unchanged from 2007. This shows that the U.S. economy in 2008, although there will be turbulence, but is not really bad. While not outstanding, but still punctuate.
forecast for the afternoon
We believe that after the strong U.S. government and Federal Reserve intervention, the market mentality will be stable, the U.S. stock market yesterday by buying the support was, we believe that low short-term oscillations 1-2 days will be picked up. Certainly lead to retaliatory panic down recovery. China's stock market fell down mainly by the spread of panic, more irrational components, will appear once the market stabilizes retaliatory attitude recovery.
commodity markets, once markeZts stabilize, the market leading back to fundamentals. Before and after the Spring Festival consumption is expected to continue to rise, driven by agricultural and industrial products in the pool of factors before the Spring Festival will continue to rise, driven by amplitude will be relatively large.
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